Iran – News Update of January 18, 2012

Note by Paul Evans: I don’t know quite what’s gotten into the media late Tuesday and now into Wednesday. Doing Google searches and visiting most of my news sources, I find that, for some reason, a cruise ship disaster in which about a dozen died is somehow far more important and newsworthy than a conflict that may potentially turn into World War 3. News on the Iran crisis is for some reason hard to find on the web. This makes me want to report to you everything I can find on the web about the developing crisis. We’ll do the best we can.

Telegraph.co.uk: Europe set to announce a ban on Iranian oil

Europe will agree sanctions banning the purchase of oil from Iran by the end of the month, William Hague, the foreign secretary, said on Sunday as Saudi Arabia promised it could boost output to make up the shortfall.

Telegraph.co.uk: Oil prices rise on Iran’s threats
to cut off Strait of Hormuz:

Oil prices climbed 70 cents to $111.14 a barrel on Monday, after Iran issued fresh threats to cut off up to 17m barrels per day of oil supply from world markets by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.

CBS News: Why Iran sanctions are doomed to fail

(TomDispatch): Let’s start with red lines. Here it is, Washington’s ultimate red line, straight from the lion’s mouth. Only last week Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said of the Iranians, “Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they’re trying to develop a nuclear capability. And that’s what concerns us. And our red line to Iran is do not develop a nuclear weapon. That’s a red line for us.”

Reuters: India says not seeking Iran oil waiver from U.S.

Iran – News Update of January 17, 2012

UPDATE: The Myth of “Isolated” Iran
Huffington Post, January 17, 2012, by Pepe Escobar

Is There Evidence Iran Is Building A Nuclear Weapon?
(Why Did Def. Sec. Panetta Say Iran Not Building Nukes?)

Iran’s nuclear scientists are not
being assassinated. They are being murdered: (Guardian.co.uk):

Killing our enemies abroad is just state-sponsored terror – whatever euphemism western leaders like to use.

On the morning of 11 January Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, the deputy head of Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, was in his car on his way to work when he was blown up by a magnetic bomb attached to his car door. He was 32 and married with a young son. He wasn’t armed, or anywhere near a battlefield.

Since 2010, three other Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed in similar circumstances, including Darioush Rezaeinejad, a 35-year-old electronics expert shot dead outside his daughter’s nursery in Tehran last July. But instead of outrage or condemnation, we have been treated to expressions of undisguised glee.

Santorum in favor of assassination
of Iranian Scientists:

“On occasion, scientists working on the nuclear programme in Iran turn up dead,” bragged the Republican nomination candidate Rick Santorum in October. “I think that’s a wonderful thing, candidly.”

Israel Divided Over Plan to Attack Iran, The Real News Network, November 30, 2011.

Iran nuclear: Ali Larijani accepts
Turkey talks offer:

BBC News: Iran has said it has agreed to talks with six world powers on its controversial nuclear programme, days after the UN confirmed Tehran was producing 20% enriched uranium. (It takes 90 percent pure uranium to make a nuclear weapon ~ Paul Evans)

Tense Triangle: Iran, Israel and US

Missile defense activated in Turkey

Iran – News Update of January 16, 2012

Iran Face-Off Testing Obama the Candidate: (NY Times):

WASHINGTON — The escalating American confrontation with Iran poses a major new political threat to President Obama as he heads into his campaign for re-election, presenting him with choices that could harm either the economic recovery or his image as a firm leader.

Iran, the U.S. and Israel: Blind Man’s Buff  (Huffington Post):

In a perilous spiral of assassinations, threats and counter-threats, the leaders of Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran keep ratcheting the tension. What is most alarming about the situation, is that the principle players and their advisers are engaged in an incredibly dangerous three-way game of blind man’s buff.

None of them expresses a real understanding of the others: of their motives, their concerns, nor their likely reactions. That’s true even with Israel and the United States: though the U.S. risks being sucked into any conflict between Israel and Iran, the Obama administration is currently forced to guess what its supposed Israeli allies are planning.

What would America or Israel — or any country — do if five of its scientists were assassinated by an enemy power? How would they react if, at the same time, the mightiest country on the planet dispatched its forces towards their borders even as it tightened a blockade to garrote their economy?

William Hague: Iran Sanctions To Be Adopted By European Nations: (Huffington Post).

US did not kill Iranian nuclear scientist, claims Leon Panetta – video: (Guardian.co.uk).

Iran could face UK military action over nuclear programme, says Hague: (Guardian.co.uk).

Commentary by Paul Evans:

Opinion from January 15, 2012: I am posting this because in reality, this is very much potentially the biggest story of the last year and this one, at least. Insofar as I can reason, we don’t send our chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff over to Israel just to tell them we won’t support them if they attack Iran. We now have 15,000 troops in Kuwait, and there are not one but two of our aircraft carriers in position to intervene.

All this sounds a lot like a strong effort to coordinate our support of Israel, rather than to push them not to attack. The U.S. is describing the various moves it is making in the middle east as efforts to defend American interests there, not as moves to strengthen a coordinated attack with Israel. I believe personally that at the least, we will provide some logistical support for Israel’s attack. And the effort to support Israel logistically has been going on for some time, now. For example, over the last couple of years we have been providing Israel with a large number of Patriot antimissle missle batteries. And then, as mentioned above, two of our Aircraft carriers stand ready in the Persian Gulf. This is just some of the evidence that we will support Israel. There is also news to the effect that the United States is prepared to make strong efforts to bring about regime change in Iran and also Syria.

Frankly, if (or when) the attack takes place, the whole middle east is going to be in flames. This is potentially World War 3. Israel has to already have realized that at the least there will be a regional war they will have to defend themselves against, that is to say, war with Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. What will happen in the vicinity of Iran is an even worse wild card.

A year ago, Iran had 1,500 intermediate range (conventional warhead) missiles. O.K., probably (I have read), Iran cannot keep the Straits of Hormuz closed for very long. However, keep in mind that Saudi Arabia has two (and only two) oil terminals. Iran’s missiles will also reach Israel, where there are only two cities of any size (Jerusalem and Tel Aviv), and they will provide targets for destruction, as well. Iran’s missiles are fairly evidently going to do a lot of damage and it will take a considerable time to get Saudi oil flowing again, depending on the situation in the Straits of Hormuz. All this may be somewhat to pretty extensively mitigated by abundant new weapons possessed by Israel which promise extensive jamming of Iran’s communications gear and perhaps a shutdown of the entire electrical grid there.

Experts are describing the effects on gasoline prices should the Straits of Hormuz remained closed for any considerable length of time as probably amounting to a doubling in price. Also, I do not have the feeling that we have any kind of real idea how long the Straits of Hormuz will remain closed. One sixth of the world’s oil flows through there, including the Saudi oil.

If anyone doesn’t know it by now, Israel has wargamed the attack on Iran at least twice, the second time accompanied by fighters equipped with special fuel tanks to let them go the whole distance to Iran and return. Israel possesses the fourth largest air force in the world currently. And it has been about a year since the Saudis gave Israel permission to use Saudi air space in any attack on Iran.

Also, about six months ago, we were fairly certain that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program had reached the level of 20 percent pure. That is a level consistent with medical and other peaceful uses of uranium. It takes 90 percent purity before an enrichment facility produces weapons grade uranium, and we have no evidence of any level of enrichment by Iran anywhere near that.

While I do not wish to continue to closely follow political news any longer, I would think that the potential start of World War 3 warrants my full efforts to report it as best I can. ~ Paul Evans

Report: US Preparing
for an Israeli Strike on Iran
(Updated, with Commentary)

Iran: We have proof US behind assassination

Report: US Preparing for an Israeli Strike on Iran, Common Dreams.org, January 14, 2012, by Common Dreams staff, large excerpt quoted verbatim, Updated, with Commentary):

Iran is looking at “punishing” those behind the assassination of one of its nuclear scientists, a senior military official said, pointing the finger at the United States, Israel and Britain

“We consider committing a terrorist act of killing a scientist to be a threat to the nation… We are looking at punishing those who were behind the scenes of the martyrdom (assassination) of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan,” the deputy chief of Iran’s joint armed forces, Masoud Jazayeri, was quoted as saying by several media.

Iran’s response will be “tormenting” for those responsible, he said, adding: “The enemies of the Iranian nation, such as the United States, Britain and the Zionist regime, should be made accountable for their actions.”

The Wall Street Journal is reporting today:

WASHINGTON—U.S. defense leaders are increasingly concerned that Israel is preparing to take military action against Iran, over U.S. objections, and have stepped up contingency planning to safeguard U.S. facilities in the region in case of a conflict.

President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and other top officials have delivered a string of private messages to Israeli leaders warning about the dire consequences of a strike. The U.S. wants Israel to give more time for the effects of sanctions and other measures intended to force Iran to abandon its perceived efforts to build nuclear weapons.[...]

Despite the close relationship between the U.S. and Israel, U.S. officials have consistently puzzled over Israeli intentions. “It’s hard to know what’s bluster and what’s not with the Israelis,” said a former U.S. official.

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Inside the Israeli security establishment, a sort of good cop, bad cop routine, in which Israeli officials rattle sabers amid a U.S. scramble to restrain them, has assumed its own name: “Hold Me Back.”

Some American intelligence officials complain that Israel represents a blind spot in U.S. intelligence, which devotes little resources to Israel. Some officials have long argued that, given the potential for Israel to drag the U.S. into potentially explosive situations, the U.S. should devote more resources to divining Israel’s true intentions.

Two US Aircraft Carriers Opposite Iran, 15,000 Troops in Kuwait

DEBKAfile, the Jerusalem-based English language Israeli military intelligence website, is reporting:

US President Barack Obama is busy aligning Middle East allies with the next US steps on Iran. Contributing to the mounting sense in Washington of an approaching US-Iranian confrontation, the Pentagon is substantially building up its combat power around Iran, stationing nearly 15,000 troops in Kuwait – two Army infantry brigades and a helicopter unit – and keeping two aircraft carriers the region. The USS Carl Vinson, the USS John Stennis which was to have returned to home base and their strike groups will stay in the Arabian Sea. ….

Read the full article here.

See U.S. army chief heads to Israel as fears over attack on Iran mount, Haaretz, January 15, 2012, by Barak Ravid:

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, is scheduled to arrive in Israel on Thursday for talks with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, and other senior defense and intelligence officials.

Recommended: The Apocalyptics, Truth-Out, January 10, 2012, by John Feffer, Foreign Policy in Focus.K

See Dennis Ross: Obama will strike Iran if necessary, JTA, January 11, 2012:

WASHINGTON (JTA) — Dennis Ross, President Obama’s former top Iran adviser, said the president would strike Iran to keep the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

“The Iranians should never think that there’s a reluctance to use the force,” Ross, who has returned to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, told Bloomberg News in an interview published Tuesday.

Obama administration officials in recent weeks have edged closer to warning Iran that a strike is in the cards if it does not make transparent a suspected nuclear weapons program.

“They need to know that if they take that step, they’re going to get stopped,” Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said over the weekend.

The United States has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf and in the coming weeks will launch its largest-ever joint anti-missile defense exercise with Israel. The Obama administration also has ratcheted up sanctions, targeting Iran’s Central Bank.

On Tuesday, the administration condemned Iran’s declared intention to launch uranium enrichment at a site it had kept secret until recently.

Also See Former Mossad chief: Israeli attack on Iran must be stopped to avert catastrophe, Infowars, December 2, 2011, by Amos Harel:

Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan warned Thursday against an Israeli attack on Iran, saying such a move would likely lead to a regional war involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria.

Israel’s Secret Iran Attack Plan: Electronic Warfare, The Daily Beast, November 16, 2011, by Eli Lake:

For much of the last decade, as Iran methodically built its nuclear program, Israel has been assembling a multibillion-dollar array of high-tech weapons that would allow it to jam, blind, and deafen Tehran’s defenses in the case of a pre-emptive aerial strike.

A U.S. intelligence assessment this summer, described to The Daily Beast by current and former U.S. intelligence officials, concluded that any Israeli attack on hardened nuclear sites in Iran would go far beyond airstrikes from F-15 and F-16 fighter planes and likely include electronic warfare against Iran’s electric grid, Internet, cellphone network, and emergency frequencies for firemen and police officers.

Also See News About Iran, Logos57: A Caring Community, ongoing. This was an attempt at continuous coverage of what was happening in Iran. There is quite a lot of news here that was not generally reported, certainly not in the mainstream media.

UPDATE: See Raising new concerns, Iran warns Gulf Arab producers to not ramp up production, Associated Press on The Washington Post, January 14(?), by AP.

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