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Robert Reich: The Precarious Jobs Recovery

Evans Liberal Politics
March 10, 2012


The Best in Liberal Christian News
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Robert Reich: The Precarious Jobs Recovery

The Precarious Jobs Recovery, Robert Reich.org, March 9, 2012, by Robert Reich, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

February’s 227,000 net new jobs – the third month in a row of job gains well in excess of 200,000 – is good news for President Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney.

Jobs are coming back fast enough to blunt Republican attacks against Obama on the economy and to rob Romney of the issue he’d prefer to be talking about in his primary battle against social conservatives in the GOP.

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But jobs aren’t coming back fast enough to significantly reduce the nation’s backlog of 10 million jobs. That backlog consists of 5.3 million lost during the recession and another 4.7 million that needed to have been added just to keep up with the growth of the working-age population since the recession began.

If the American economy continues to produce jobs at the good rate it’s maintained over the last three months, averaging 245,000 per month, the backlog won’t be whittled down for another five years — long after Barack Obama finishes his second term, should voters grant him another.

But whether even that good rate continues depends largely on whether consumer demand can be revived. Spending by American consumers is 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. But so far, spending is anemic.

American consumers have replaced worn-out cars and appliances, but little else. They haven’t had the dough. Their wages are still falling, adjusted for inflation. The value of their homes – most consumers’ single biggest asset – continues to drop.

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Home values are down by an average of a third from their 2006 peak. Consumers understandably feel far poorer as a result. Declining home prices also mean consumers can’t use their homes as collateral for new loans, as they did before 2008. And even with low interest rates, refinancing is difficult.

Corporate profits are up but the money isn’t flowing to American workers. The ratio of profits to wages is the highest on record – since the government began keeping track in 1947. Not only has the median wage continued to drop, adjusted for inflation, but a far smaller share of working-age Americans is now employed (58.6 percent) than was employed five years ago (63.3 percent). Today’s employment-to-population ratio isn’t much higher than it was at its lowest point last summer, when it dropped to 58.2 percent.

The major driver of the U.S. economy over the past several months hasn’t been consumer spending. It’s been businesses rebuilding depleted inventories. Wholesalers increased their stockpiles again in February, bringing them up almost a quarter from their low in September 2009.

But businesses won’t continue to rebuild inventories unless consumers start buying again. big-time. And consumers won’t resume spending as they did before the recession until they’re far better off financially.

Yet how can they be sufficiently better off when their major asset has shrunk so much and when so few of the economic gains are going to them?

This is the central paradox at the heart of the American economy today. If it’s not resolved, the jobs recovery will stall, as it did last spring.

A year ago, remember, we had another three-month run of good job numbers. Last February, March, and April saw net gains of more than 200,000 jobs a month. But that job boomlet abruptly ended.

At the time most observers blamed the stall on external events – the Japanese earthquake, Europe’s gathering debt woes, and higher gas prices. In reality, it stalled because of the shallow pockets of American consumers.

Another stall this time might be blamed on any number of external events – slower growth in China and India, the unraveling of Europe’s debt-crisis deal, and higher gas prices.

But if another stall occurs, the real reason will be Americans once again ran out of money.

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Posted on March 10, 2012 by , Reply

Robert Reich — Bye Bye American Pie: The Challenge of the Productivity Revolution

Evans Liberal Politics
March 6, 2012


The Best in Liberal Christian News
and US Politics

Robert Reich — Bye Bye American Pie:
The Challenge of the Productivity Revolution

Bye Bye American Pie: The Challenge of the Productivity Revolution, Robert Reich.org, March 1, 2012, by Robert Reich, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

Here’s the good news. The economic pie is growing again. Growth in the 4th quarter last year hit 3 percent on an annualized rate. That’s respectable – although still way too slow to get us back on track given how far we plunged.


Here’s the bad news. The share of that growth going to American workers is at a record low.

That’s largely because far fewer Americans are working. Although the nation is now producing more goods and services than it did before the slump began in 2007, we’re doing it with six million fewer people.

Why? Credit technology. Computers, software applications, and the Internet are letting us produce more with fewer people.

In theory, this is a huge plus. We can live better and have more time off.

But as Tonto asked the Lone Ranger, “who’s ‘we,’ kemosabe?”

The challenge at the heart of the productivity revolution – and it is a revolution – is how to distribute the gains. So far, we’ve been failing miserably to meet that challenge.

True, some of the gains are widely spread in the form of lower prices and higher value. My 3-year-old granddaughter gets more out of an i-Phone in five minutes than my 98-year-old father ever got out of reading the daily paper (putting to one side their relative capacities to process the information).

But many of the gains are distributed narrowly in the form of profits to owners, and fat compensation packages to the “talent.”

The share of the gains going to everyone else in the form of wages and salaries has been shrinking. It’s now the smallest since the government began keeping track in 1947.

If the trend continues, inequality will become ever more extreme.

We’ll also face chronically insufficient demand for all the goods and services the productivity revolution can generate. That’s because the rich save more of their earnings than everyone else, while middle and lower-income families – with fewer jobs or lower wages – no longer have the purchasing power to keep the economy going at full tilt. (Before 2008 they kept up their buying by sinking deep into debt. This proved to be an unsustainable strategy.)

Insufficient demand – as everyone but regressive supply-siders now recognize – is a big reason why the current recovery has been so anemic and the pie isn’t growing faster.

So while the productivity revolution is indubitably good, the task ahead is to figure out how to distribute more of its gains to more of our people.

One possibility: higher taxes on the rich that go into wage subsidies for lower-income workers, combined with job sharing.

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We also need better schools (from early-childhood through young adulthood, followed by systems of lifelong learning) so everyone has a fair shot at a larger share of the gains.

Finally, the benefits of the productivity revolution should be turned into more abundant public goods – cleaner air and water, better parks and recreation, improved public health, and better public transit.

Regressive right wingers want Americans to believe we’ve been living beyond our means, and can no longer afford it.

The truth is just the reverse. Most Americans’ means haven’t kept up with what the economy could provide – if the fruits of the productivity revolution were more widely shared.

Regressives growl about America’s borrowing and tut-tut about future federal budget deficits. The reality is the world is willing to lend us vast amounts of money because we’re so productive. And the productivity revolution is making us ever more so.

Get it? The pie is growing again but most people aren’t getting much of a slice. That’s bad even for those getting the biggest pieces. They’d do better with smaller slices of a pie that grew much faster.

Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor under Bill Clinton and is Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations. In 2008, Time Magazine named him one of the Ten Most Successful Cabinet Members of the century. He has written eleven books, including “The Work of Nations,” which has been translated into 22 languages. His recent book is “Supercapitalism.” For Professor Reich’s book page for Supercaptialism at Amazon, go here. Reich’s newest book, Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future has been released September 21, and is available for ordering at this link (Amazon.com). The above article is from Reich’s new blog, and can be viewed here.

Robert Reich’s commentaries are available for listening to at Publicradio.com. Watch the video Aftershock: The next economy and America’s future (about his new book). Thanks to Professor Reich for permission to publish his articles on an ongoing basis.

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Posted on March 6, 2012 by , Reply

For many Americans, jobs crisis to last many years

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January 7, 2012

 

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For many Americans,
jobs crisis to last many years

For many Americans, jobs crisis to last many years, Reuters on The Raw Story, January 7, 2012, by Reuters: Logos57: A Caring Community is pleased to partner with The Raw Story to bring you cutting edge news:

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – – Despite an upswing in hiring during 2011, the jobs crisis could last many more years as millions of Americans struggle to find work.

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In Orlando, Florida, Brenda Solomon lost her retail job last May at a department store and was unable to find even temporary work during the holiday season.

“I’ve tried and tried and tried,” Solomon, 58, said on Friday while visiting a job center.

Earlier, the U.S. Labor department said employers added 200,000 jobs during December, many more than expected by Wall Street. In 2011 as a whole, 1.64 million jobs were created, well above the 940,000 in 2010 and the best showing since 2006.

But the amount of jobs in the economy is still about 6.1 million lower than before the brutal 2007-2009 recession. At December’s pace of gains, it would take about 2 1/2 years just to get back to pre-recession levels of employment.

That means many people will be in for an agonizing wait.

In December, 5.6 million of the nation’s unemployed had been out of work for at least six months, the Labor Department data showed, only slightly lower than the previous month.

Laquanda Carmichael has been without work for just over a year and has seen no improvement in the labor market.

“It’s been the same to me. I have a lot of discouraging days,” the 39 year-old former science teacher and hospital worker said.

“I’m looking for anything right now. Warehouse processing, hospitality, anything.”

While jobs creation certainly picked up in the United States during the end of the year, economists point out that even a gain of 200,000 underwhelms considering constant growth in the population and the still-high 8.5 percent unemployment rate.

Princeton University economist Paul Krugman said that at December’s pace it could take a decade for the labor market to recover from the recession.

In a back-of-the-envelope calculation, Krugman was considering that the country’s growing population adds at least 100,000 people to the workforce every month.

“We need much faster job growth,” he wrote on his blog. “It says something about how beaten down we are that this (jobs report for December) is considered good news.”

The unemployment numbers reflect a persistent difference between those with a higher education and those without – especially in certain sectors like engineering.

Nearly 90 percent of 2011 graduates from Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts got jobs or attended graduate school – almost the same level as before 2008.

Jeanette Doyle, director of the school’s Career Development Center, said there was a 7 percent uptick in late 2011 in the number of companies at the school’s fall recruiting event, and 17 companies were on a wait list to get in.

For lower-paid Americans, the picture is very different.

Construction worker Richard White, also at the job center in Orlando, has not had steady work in the last three years, and gets by on occasional stints doing electrical work or carpentry.

In December, the construction industry added 17,000 jobs. But that sector, devastated by a burst housing bubble that helped trigger the last recession, has even farther to go than the rest of the economy before it can recover.

There were still almost a third fewer construction jobs in December than at the industry’s pre-recession peak in August 2006.

As for the December’s advance, White said: “I’m not seeing it.”

(Additional reporting by Jilian Mincer in New York; writing by Jason Lange in Washington; Editing by Diane Craft)

Comment by Paul Evans:

In my town of Wooster, Ohio, which is only 25,000, but is the marketing hub for 130,000 people, I am seeing a little bit of a thaw, as some jobs are opening up. Still, this is the most lopsided so-called recovery I have seen or read of. It seems that, given the greed of the rich and the ability of technical computer programs, I actually truly believe that this recovery is only of, by and for the rich, and that it was engineered that way very deliberately. If you are poor but informed, you already know this. This recovery is for the multinational corporations, investment banks and the very rich. By no means for the ordinary person trying to get by.

The best measure of this I have found backing up my claim is that, as of last February, the unemployment rate for those making $100,000 or more was 3.2 percent, while the unemployment rate for those making $20,000 a year or less was 31 percent.

Try to understand: for the very rich, your welfare or the lack of it is irrelevant. YOU are irrelevant to these people. The only way we can take back America is to get the right candidates nominated and then build up enough of a cooperative network of organizations to get them elected, on a mass scale. Yes, we progressives have been and are very discouraged: the very rich control our government, and they aren’t about to let go of that control without a bitter fight that I personally do not see happening.

Voters seem to not be aware of what is in their own interest. Right now, the lowest 80 percent of us in wealth control only 17 percent of the wealth of America. This is not a pretty picture. ~ Paul Evans

Obscenity of the day: The best paid hedge fund manager makes more money in a year than the entire group of 80,000 New York City school teachers do in three years, according to Paul Krugman. Something is incredibly immoral about that.

See For Working People, Evans Liberal Politics, May 29, 2011, by Paul Evans.

See Editorial: Waiting For Recovery, NY Times, January 7, 2012.

See Income Inequality: Too Big to Ignore, The New York Times, October 16, 2010, by Robert H. Frank.

See Obama to Businesses: Bring Jobs Home, The Raw Story, January 7, 2012, by Reuters.

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http://evans-politics.com/for-many-americans-jobs-crisis-to-last-many-years.html

Posted on January 7, 2012 by , Reply

My Kind of Music: Walter Trout – They Call Us the Working Class

Evans Liberal Politics
September 4, 2011

 

My Kind of Music:
Walter Trout – They Call Us
the Working Class, But We
Ain’t Working Anymore


Originally Published March 31, 2010

Walter Trout’s .mp3 page on Amazon.com.

Posted on September 4, 2011 by , 1 comment

Robert Reich: The Zero Economy

Evans Liberal Politics
September 3, 2011

 

Robert Reich: The Zero Economy

The Zero Economy, Robert Reich.org, September 2, 2011, by Robert Reich, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports today no jobs were created in August. Zero. Nada.

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Well, not quite. The strike at Verizon reduced the labor force by 45,000. Minnesota government employees returned to work, adding 22,000. So in reality, America added 23,000 jobs. Almost zero.

In reality, worse than zero. We need 125,000 a month merely to keep up with population growth. So the hole continues to deepen.

Since this Depression began at the end of 2007, America’s potential labor force – working-age people who want jobs – has grown by over 7 million. But since then the number of Americans with jobs has shrunk by more than 300,000.

If this doesn’t prompt President Obama to unveil a bold jobs plan next Thursday, I don’t know what will.

The problem is on the demand side. Consumers (whose spending is 70 percent of the economy) can’t boost the economy on their own. They’re still too burdened by debt, especially on homes that are worth less than their mortgages. Their jobs are disappearinig, their pay is dropping, their medical bills are soaring.

And businesses won’t hire without more sales.

So we’re in a vicous cycle.

Republicans continue to claim businesses aren’t hiring because they’re uncertain about regulatory costs. Or they can’t find the skilled workers they need.

Baloney. If these were the reasons businesses weren’t hiring – and demand were growing – you’d expect companies to make more use of their current employees. The length of the average workweek would be increasing.

But the length of the average workweek has been dropping. In August it declined for the third month in a row, to 34.2 hours. That’s back to where it was at the start of the year – barely longer than what it was at its shortest point two years ago (33.7 hours in June 2009).

It’s demand, stupid.

So what does a sane nation do when the consumers and businesses can’t boost the economy on their own?

Government becomes the purchaser of last resort. It hires directly (a new WPA and Civilian Conservation Corps, for example). It helps states and locales, so they don’t have to continue to slash payrolls and public services. (The help could be structured as a loan, to be repaid when unemployment drops to, say, 6 percent.)

And it hires indirectly — contracting with companies to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, including school buildings, to take another example.

Not only does this create jobs but also puts money in the hands of all the people who get the jobs, so they can turn around and buy the goods and services they need – generating more jobs.

Get it? Not exactly rocket science.

So why don’t Republicans get it? Either they’re knaves – they want the economy to stay awful through next Election Day so Obama gets the boot. Or they’re fools – they’ve bought the lie that reducing the deficit now creates more jobs.

Every time you hear anyone say we’re “broke” or “can’t afford to spend more,” tell them we’ll be in worse shape if we don’t. If the economy remains dead in the water, the ratio of public debt to GDP balloons.

And remind them that the federal government can now borrow at fire-sale rates. Interest on the ten-year Treasury bill is 2 percent.

Do you hear me, Mr. President? Please — be bold next week. And if, as expected, Republicans refuse to go along, take it to the people. Mobilize the public. Use the bully pulpit. That’s what you have it for.

One more thing, Mr. President. You also have to tackle inequality. When so much income and wealth continues to flow to the very top, America’s vast middle class still won’t have enough purchasing power to boost the economy. Priming the pump is necessary but won’t be sufficient without enough water in the well.

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Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor under Bill Clinton and is Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations. In 2008, Time Magazine named him one of the Ten Most Successful Cabinet Members of the century. He has written eleven books, including “The Work of Nations,” which has been translated into 22 languages. His recent book is “Supercapitalism.” For Professor Reich’s book page for Supercaptialism at Amazon, go here. Reich’s newest book, Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future has been released September 21, and is available for ordering at this link (Amazon.com). The above article is from Reich’s new blog, and can be viewed here.

Robert Reich’s commentaries are available for listening to at Publicradio.com. Watch the video Aftershock: The next economy and America’s future (about his new book). Thanks to Professor Reich for permission to publish his articles on an ongoing basis.

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Posted on September 3, 2011 by , Reply

The President’s Bold Jobs Bill (Maybe)

Evans Liberal Politics
August 18, 2011

 

The President’s Bold Jobs Bill (Maybe)


Robert Reich.org, August 17, 2011, by Robert Reich, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

The President is sounding like a fighter these days. He even says he’ll be proposing a jobs bill in September – and if Republicans don’t go along he’ll fight for it through Election Day (or beyond).

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That’s a start. But read the small print and all he’s talked about so far is extending the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits (good, but small potatoes), ratifying the Columbia and South Korea free trade agreements (not necessarily a job-creating move), and creating an infrastructure bank.

An infrastructure bank might be helpful, depending on its size.

Which is the real question hovering over the entire putative jobs bill – its size.

Some of the President’s political advisors have been pushing for small-bore initiatives that they believe might have a chance of getting through the Republican just-say-no House. They also figure policy miniatures won’t give aspiring GOP candidates more ammunition to tar Obama as a big-government liberal.

But the President is sounding as if he’s rejected their advice.

That’s good policy and good politics.

Good policy because any jobs bill has to be big enough to give the economy the boost it needs to get out of the gravitational pull of the Great Recession.

Right now all the old booster rockets are gone. The original stimulus is over. The Fed’s “quantitative easing” is over.

Combine the budget cuts state and local governments continue to make with the slowdown in consumer spending, the reluctance of businesses to expand or hire, and the magnitude of unemployment and under-employment, and you need a big new booster rocket. I’d estimate the shortfall in aggregate demand to be $300 billion to $500 billion this year alone.

A bold jobs plan is also good politics. With more than 25 million Americans looking for full-time jobs, the wages of people with jobs falling, and an economy on the verge of a double dip, the President has to come out fighting on the side of average people.

Besides, Republicans won’t go along with any jobs initiative he proposes – even a tiny one. Better they reject one that could make a real difference than one that’s pitifully small and symbolic.

If Republicans reject it, Obama can build his 2012 campaign around that fight. Maybe he’ll even call Republicans on their big lie that smaller government leads to more jobs.

What would a bold jobs bill look like? Here are the ten components I’d recommend (apologies to those of you who have read some of these before):

1. Exempt first $20K of income from payroll taxes for two years. Make up shortfall by raising ceiling on income subject to payroll taxes.

2. Recreate the WPA and Civilian Conservation Corps to put long-term unemployed directly to work.

3. Create an infrastructure bank authorized to borrow $300 billion a year to repair and upgrade the nation’s roads, bridges, ports, airports, school buildings, and water and sewer systems.

4. Amend bankruptcy laws to allow distressed homeowners to declare bankruptcy on their primary residence, so they can reorganize their mortgage loans.

5. Allow distressed homeowners to sell a portion of their mortgages to the FHA, which would take a proportionate share of any upside gains when the homes are sold.

6. Provide tax incentive to employers who create net new jobs ($2,500 deduction for every net new job created).

7. Make low-interest loans to cash-starved states and cities, so they don’t have to lay off teachers, fire fighters, police officers, and reduce other critical public services.

8. Provide partial unemployment benefits to people who have lost part-time jobs.

9. Enlarge and expand the Earned Income Tax Credit – a wage subsidy for low-wage work.

10. Impose a “severance fee” on any large business that lays off an American worker and outsources the job abroad.

Some of these won’t cost the federal government money. Others will be costly in the short term but lead to faster growth.

Remember: Faster growth means a more manageable debt in the long term. Which means the President could tie this (or any other jobs bill of similar magnitude) to an even more ambitious long-term debt-reduction plan than he’s already proposed.

A bold jobs bill is good politics and good policy. Let’s wait to see what the President actually proposes.

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Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor under Bill Clinton and is Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations. In 2008, Time Magazine named him one of the Ten Most Successful Cabinet Members of the century. He has written eleven books, including “The Work of Nations,” which has been translated into 22 languages. His recent book is “Supercapitalism.” For Professor Reich’s book page for Supercaptialism at Amazon, go here. Reich’s newest book, Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future has been released September 21, and is available for ordering at this link (Amazon.com). The above article is from Reich’s new blog, and can be viewed here.

Robert Reich’s commentaries are available for listening to at Publicradio.com. Watch the video Aftershock: The next economy and America’s future (about his new book). Thanks to Professor Reich for permission to publish his articles on an ongoing basis.

Posted on August 18, 2011 by , Reply

US Video News Roundup for April 1, 2011

Evans Liberal Politics
April 1, 2011

 

US Video News Roundup for April 1, 2011

News & Analysis from Around the United States

Jobs Trickle Back In,
Unemployment Falls to 8.8%

President Obama On
Green Fleet Initiative

Kucinich on Ohio’s
New Anti-Union Bill

TYT: Police Unions
Fed Up With Republicans

Microsoft Store


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Posted on April 1, 2011 by , Reply
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