The US Has Lost in Afghanistan — We Have to Come to Grips with What That Means, AlterNet, August 16, 2010, by Conn Hallinan of Foreign Policy in Focus, photo by Steve Evans, quoted verbatim:

There never was a goal set by NATO and Afghanistan that was achievable; because their blood and capital are finite.

Wars are rarely lost in a single encounter; Defeat is almost always more complex than that. The United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies have lost the war in Afghanistan, but not just because they failed in the battle for Marjah or decided that discretion was the better part of valor in Kandahar. They lost the war because they should never have invaded in the first place; because they never had a goal that was achievable; because their blood and capital are finite.

The face of that defeat was everywhere this past month.

According to the Afghanistan Rights Monitor, “In terms of insecurity, 2010 has been the worst year since the demise of the Taliban regime in late 2001.”

A recent U.S. government audit found that despite $27 billion spent on training, fewer than 12 percent of Afghan security forces were capable of operating on their own.

Some 58 percent of the American public think the war is “a lost cause,” and 60 percent think the United States should begin to withdraw in July 2011. Only Republican votes in Congress saved the Obama administration’s request for $33 billion to fuel the war in the coming fiscal year. The war is currently hemorrhaging money at a rate of $7 billion a month.

The British public — the United Kingdom is the second largest armed contingent in Afghanistan — opposes the war by 72 percent, and other coalition forces are quickly abandoning the effort in the war-torn Central Asian nation. Poland announced it would withdraw its 2,600 troops in 2012. The Dutch will be out this August. The Canadians in 2011. The Australians, along with the rest of the NATO allies, declined a plea in July to send more combat troops.

In a sign of the dire circumstances of the war effort, twice in this past month, Afghan soldiers turned their guns on NATO soldiers.

A poll by the International Council on Security and Development reaffirms that the NATO alliance is failing to win over Afghan civilians, a cornerstone of success in the current strategy employed in Afghanistan. The poll found that in the two provinces currently at the center of the war — Helmand and Kandahar — 75 percent of Afghans believe foreigners disrespect their religion and traditions; 74 percent think working for foreign forces is wrong; 68 percent believe NATO will not protect them; and 65 percent think Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar should be part of the government.

The Arithmetic of Defeat

So does one calculate the arithmetic of defeat. But “defeat” does not mean the war is over. Indeed, the moment when it becomes obvious that victory is no longer an option can be the most dangerous time in a conflict’s history. The losers may double down, as the French and the United States did in Vietnam. They may lash out in a frenzy of destruction, as the United States did in Laos and Cambodia. Or they may poison the well for generations to come by dividing people on the basis of ethnicity, religion and tribe, as the British did when their empire began to disintegrate.

Faced with rising opposition at home, increased casualties on the battlefield, and growing isolation from its allies, the United States is casting about for a way to salvage the Afghan disaster, and coming up with schemes that may end up destabilizing not only Afghanistan, but much of Central and South Asia.

The most radical of these schemes is being floated by the former U.S. ambassador to India, Robert Blackwell, a neoconservative mainstay and currently a lobbyist for India. Blackwell proposes partitioning Afghanistan into two countries: an independent, Pashtun-dominated south, and a northern and western section where Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras make up the majority. According to the scheme, “Pashtunistan” would be kept in line by armed drones and 30,000 to 40,000 U.S. Special Forces.

Such an independent country would almost certainly destabilize Pakistan’s Northern Frontier and Tribal areas, where 40 million Pashtuns currently reside. Many of those Pashtuns have never accepted the 1893 Durand Line that the British used to divide Afghanistan from what was then India.

Pashtunistan would also be a template for an independent Baluchistan, further dismembering Afghanistan — certainly something the Indian Army would be delighted with — and serve as a rallying cry for marginalized ethnic groups all over the region, including those in Kashmir, China, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Iraq, Russia, and areas in northern India.

It is not clear how much support the partition plan has, given the deep opposition of countries like Pakistan and China, but Blackwell has sprung the genie, and getting it back into the lamp will not be easy.

A second proposal — to create an army of local militias to fight the Taliban — is already underway, in spite of the disastrous experience with similar armed groups during the Soviet occupation. Those militias turned into warlord armies, which shook down local residents, protected the growing drug trade, and fought over tribal turf.

U.S. commander, Gen. David Petraeus insists that the armed groups will not be “militia,” but more like police — uniformed, armed, and paid by the government of President Hamid Karzai. But given that the Kabul government has virtually no presence outside the capital, how these groups will be controlled is not obvious. Furthermore, if for some reason these militias do confront the Taliban, they will be outgunned by more experienced guerilla fighters.

A June 9 incident in Kandahar is a case in point. The Taliban attacked a local militia that had gathered to celebrate a wedding, killing 40 and wounding 87. The unit had been recruited by U.S. Special Forces, which promised weapons and ammunition. But according to the New York Times, when militia commander, Mohammed Nabi Kako went to the Special Forces, the commander fobbed him off to the Karzi regime, which turned down his request — whether from fear of forming independent militias, or plain old corruption is not clear. When the Taliban attacked, the militia couldn’t defend itself.

The United States has a long track record of recruiting local people to fight and then abandoning them. The Montagnards in Vietnam’s highlands and the Hmong in Laos come to mind.

The model that has the most parallels with the situation in Afghanistan, however, is Guatemala, where the United States helped the military dictatorship create village militias to fight insurgents. If the militias did not fight the guerillas, the Guatemalan Army slaughtered the villagers. If the militias did fight, the villagers became targets in the long-running civil war.

Indeed, an argument can be made that the very idea of militias violates the Geneva Conventions against using civilians to fight in a war, although the United States could finesse that argument by claiming the militia members are “uniformed.” What is certain is that entire villages will be pulled into the war by making them targets for retaliation by a more experienced and better-armed Taliban.

However, the most obvious use for the militias will be to protect the vast drug trade that has made Afghanistan the source of 90 percent of the world’s opium. It is a trade that corrupts not only Afghans, but the police and military of surrounding countries. Indeed, it is a poisonous chain that leads into the heart of Europe, leaving dead and maimed in its path. More than 30,000 addicts die of heroin overdoses each year in Russia alone.

Arbitrary partitions and local militias will not salvage the war for the United States and NATO. The only way out is to cut a deal with the people we are fighting. That will not be easy. The Taliban offered a reasonable peace plan in 2007, and it was turned down. Given the obvious collapse of the allied effort, why should the Taliban want to negotiate? But the Pakistanis say the deal is doable, and of all the counties in the region, Islamabad has the closest ties to the mélange of groups waging war in Afghanistan.

We have lost the war. It is time to recognize reality and start talking.

Conn Hallinan is a Foreign Policy In Focus columnist. He also writes the blog, Distpatches from the Edge.

UPDATE: See Karzai: Private contractors ‘looting and stealing,’ working with terrorists, The Raw Story, August 22, 2010, by Daniel Tencer, excerpt quoted verbatim:

Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Sunday defended his decision to ban private security contractors from operating in public in Afghanistan, saying many of the organizations tasked with providing security are engaging in terrorist activities, working with “Mafia-like” organizations and “looting and stealing from the Afghan people.”

Karzai also speculated that some groups may be acting as security contractors during the day and as terrorist groups “at nighttime.”

Last week, Karzai gave security contractors working in Afghanistan four months to cease operations In an interview with Christiane Amanpour on ABC’s This Week, the Afghan president said the move was necessary because the for-profit contractors were destabilizing the country’s fight against militants.

UPDATE: See As public sours on war, GOP senator backs Afghan pullout deadline, The Raw Story, August 22, 2010, by David Edwards.

See Opposition to Afghanistan conflict not just a liberal issue anymore, The Hill, August 20, 2010, by Sean J. Hill, excerpt quoted verbatim:

A majority of voters want the conflict to end quickly — no matter their party affiliation, according to recent polls.

…SNIP….

North Carolina Senate candidate Elaine Marshall (D) opposed the surge of troops to Afghanistan and wants American forces to withdraw from the country in an orderly fashion.

“We’re spending billions to train a corrupt police force there, and here at home we’re laying off policemen and firefighters,” she said in a statement. “We’re hiring teachers over there, and here we’re sending teachers to the unemployment lines. If there’s a country we need to rebuild, it’s America.”

Democratic strategist Jim Spencer, who has consulted for Marshall, said her position is no longer considered liberal or left-wing. “It’s a very mainstream message, it’s not a left-wing message at all,” he said.

See The Great Myth: Counterinsurgency, Dispatches from the Edge, July 25, 2010, by Conn Hallinan.

See Petraeus’ risky militia maneuver for Afghanistan, Los Angeles Times, July 19, 2010, Editorial.

See FACTBOX-Security developments in Afghanistan, Aug 22, Reuters, August 22, 2010, by Andrew Hammond and Sayed Salahuddin.

See NATO not winning Afghan hearts and minds: poll, Reuters, July 17, 2010, by Adrian Croft.

See Plan B for Afghanistan.

See Review: The Most Dangerous Place, Financial Times, July 18, 2010, Editorial. On the northwestern tribal provinces of Pakistan.

Visit ReThinkAfghanistan.com, and see the new videos.

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The Truth About China As #2, Robert Reich.org, August 16, 2010, by Robert Reich, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

It’s official. China is now #2. Its economy (measured in nominal GDP for the second quarter) is now bigger than Japan’s (according to numbers released today from the Japanese government). And at the rate it’s growing, China could be the world’s biggest economy in a a little more than a decade (Goldman Sachs says by 2027, PricewaterhouseCoopers says by 2020).

Don’t be misled by these numbers. The important thing isn’t China’s ranking, nor the total value of China’s production, nor even the extraordinary speed by which China has reached #2.

What’s most important is the share China’s production received and consumed by the Chinese themselves. The problem is it continues to drop.

China has dozens of billionaires but the vast majority of the Chinese are still extremely poor. The typical Chinese lives off the equivalent of about $3,600 a year. That puts him behind workers in 126 other countries. (The typical Japanese earns the equivalent of about $39,000; the typical American, $46,400.)

Yes, Chinese employers are starting to respond to new-found demands of Chinese workers for higher wages. But Chinese wages are so meager relative to China’s productive capacity that it would take a tsunami of labor agitation to push pay up to where it should be.

China is now the world’s largest market for everything from cars to cell phones – but that’s not because these items are within easy reach of the average Chinese. It’s because, out of 1.3 billion people, a couple of hundred million can save enough to buy them.

If the wages and purchasing power of Chinese households continues to rise more slowly than China’s capacity to produce goods and services — more slowly than China’s corporate profits and the government’s share of national income — we’re all in trouble.

Think of China as a giant production machine that’s growing 10 percent a year (this year, somewhat less). The machine sucks in more and more raw materials and components from rest of world – it’s now the world’s #1 buyer of iron ore and copper, and close to the #1 importer of crude oil – and spews out a growing mountain of stuff, along with huge environmental problems.

But because the Chinese consume a smaller and smaller proportion of this stuff, it has to be exported to consumers elsewhere (Europe, North America, Japan) to keep the Chinese working. Much of the money China earns by selling it around the world is reinvested in factories, roads, trains, and power plants that enlarge China’s capacity to produce far more. Another big portion is lent to or invested in the rest of the world (helping to finance America’s budget deficit at very low cost).

But this can’t go on. China’s workers won’t allow it. Workers in other nations who are losing their jobs won’t allow it, either.

The answer is not simply more labor agitation in China or an upward revaluation of China’s currency relative to the dollar. The problem is bigger. All over the world, we’re witnessing a growing gap between production and consumption, while the environment continues to degrade. The Chinese machine is fast heading for a breakdown only because it’s growing fastest.

Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor under Bill Clinton and is Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations. In 2008, Time Magazine named him one of the Ten Most Successful Cabinet Members of the century. He has written eleven books, including “The Work of Nations,” which has been translated into 22 languages. His latest book is “Supercapitalism.” For Professor Reich’s book page for Supercaptialism at Amazon, go here. The above article is from Reich’s new blog, and can be viewed here.

Thanks to Professor Reich for permission to publish his articles on an ongoing basis.

Headline News Update

"Headline News – Democracy Now!" Headline news from August 16, 2010 — 8:52

"Headline News – Democracy Now!" Headline news from August 16, 2010 – 2 — 2:41

A Favorite Song of Mine called "Seagull:"

"Seagull:" A special cover performance of Bad Company’s haunting song. — 4:53

With Apologies to Professor Reich…:

AHEM: Lest We Be Thought Too Square…

Warning: Obscenity. For Mature Audiences Only.

George Carlin: The American Dream

OR: Why the American Education System Will Stay "Broken"

"The American Dream": (This is a repeat due to popular demand.) George Carlin performs a brilliant and scathing monologue on our serfdom which may be his very best short effort. — 3:15. Scary stuff.

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UN chief says Pakistan floods ‘heart-wrenching’, BBC News, August 15, 2010, by BBC News, map © BBC News, excerpts quoted verbatim:

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has described as “heart-wrenching” the destruction he witnessed on a visit to flood-devastated Pakistan.

Mr Ban said the scale of the disaster was greater than anything he had seen before.

He again urged the world to speed up aid to the country, saying shelter and medicine were desperately needed.

The Pakistani government says up to 20 million people have now been affected by the monsoon floods.

Health experts are warning that the threat of epidemics in flood-hit areas is growing.

The UN has already confirmed at least one case of cholera among the victims.

Deep concern

“This has been a heart-wrenching day for me and for my delegation,” Mr Ban said at a press conference, stood alongside President Asif Ali Zardari.

“I will never forget the destruction and suffering I have witnessed today.

“In the past I have seen scenes of natural disaster around the world, but nothing like this. The scale of this disaster is so large. So many people in so many places in so much need.”

He announced a further $10m from the UN’s central emergency response fund and repeated his calls for the international community to come to Pakistan’s aid.

“The people of Pakistan need food, emergency shelters, medicines, clean water,” he said.

“We are all deeply concerned about the spread of diarrhoea and other water-borne diseases. All our combined medical capacity will be needed to provide the right drugs and care.”

On Wednesday the UN launched a $459m (£294m) appeal for emergency aid for Pakistan. It said that billions of dollars would be needed in the long term.

Read the full article, here.

See Pakistan Flooding Disaster Is `Far From Over,’ UN’s Ban Says in Aid Appeal, Bloomberg, August 15, 2010, by Mike Harrison.

UPDATE: See U.N. Chief Urges Donations to Pakistan, The New York Times, August 15, 2010, by Associated Press.

Floods Could Have Lasting Impact for Pakistan

UPDATE: See Floods Could Have Lasting Impact for Pakistan, The New York Times, August 16, 2010, by Adam B. Ellick, excerpt quoted verbatim:

KARACHI, Pakistan — Even as the government and international relief workers struggle to get food and clean water to millions of Pakistanis devastated by floods, concerns are growing about the enduring toll of the disaster on the nation’s overall economy, food supply and political stability.

More rains battered the country Monday, adding to the worst flooding in memory and confronting Pakistan with a complex array of challenges, government and relief officials warned. Though they ranged over the immediate, medium and long term, nearly all needed to be addressed urgently for Pakistan to avoid lasting calamity.

Providing clean water for millions and avoiding the spread of diseases like cholera was the first priority. But there were also looming food shortages and price spikes, even in cities, and the danger that farmers would miss the fall planting season, raising the prospect of a new cycle of shortfalls next year in a country that produces much of its own food

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(Reuters) – Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said on Sunday that relations with the United States had been “seriously disrupted,” after a rise in friction between the two big powers.

“The responsibility does not lie with China,” said Yang, speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of the annual session of China’s parliament.

Beijing and Washington have recently gone through a rough patch, with quarrels in January and February over Chinese Internet censorship, trade disputes, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and President Barack Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader.

The United States “must respect China’s core interests” on Taiwan and Tibet, Yang added. “I believe the United States understands very well China’s core interests and major concerns.

“China has always attached importance to its relationship with the United States,” he said. “Resolutely adhering to one’s principled stance is not the same thing as being hardline.”

But the two big trade partners appear to want to lower the temperature of the disputes as they also grapple with how to deal with how to deal with Iran and North Korea.

Beijing has not yet acted on its threat to sanction U.S. companies involved in the arms sales to Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as part of its territory.

Last weekend, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said he wanted trade friction with the United States to ease.

Comment by Evans Liberal Politics owner Paul Evans: Ever since Newsweek came out with the magazine cover article announcing the 21st century as belonging to China, I’m sure the U.S. has been keeping a wary eye on their erstwhile rival. Let’s hope we can make the 21st century a partnership, as it should be with a nation so rich in population, culture and economic strength. Perhaps we had better take their wishes a little more into consideration, logically.

Visit Reuters, for the latest and best in breaking news.

See Obama to nominate retired Army general for TSA: source, Reuters, March 7, 2010, by Reporting by Chris Buckley; (Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Bill Tarrant):

(Reuters) – President Barack Obama plans to nominate retired Army Major Gen. Robert Harding to head the Transportation Security Administration after his first pick withdrew under political pressure, an administration official said Sunday.

…Before retiring from the military, Harding was deputy to the Army’s chief of intelligence and previously served as director for operations in the Defense Intelligence Agency.

See Iran’s Ahmadinejad calls Sept 11 “big fabrication”, Reuters, March 6, 2010, by Ramin Mostafavi and Hashem Kalantari; (writing by Fredrik Dahl; editing by Noah Barkin): so is I’maNutJob this insane, or is he this evil — and isn’t this sort of evil really simply various forms of insanity: aren’t they the same thing??? I don’t mean that all insanity is evil; many poor struggling sufferers have no real fault of their own. I mean that all evil, real evil, is insane. Or at least, sure doesn’t “get it”.