Evans Liberal Politics, Ongoing discussion by Paul Evans

IMPORTANT UPDATE: Watch U.S.-Israeli Effort Halts Iran Weapons Program, CBS News video, January 16, 2010: Apparently a joint U.S. – Israeli effort to contaminate the computer system at the main enrichment facility with the Stuxnet virus has effectively delayed the weaponizations program until at least 2015. Wow.

UPDATE: See Iran is open to more nuclear talks, Ahmadinejad says, Agence France-Presse on The Raw Story, January 23, 2011, by AFP.

UPDATE: See Neocons Hoping Israel Will Start a Fire the U.S. Will Be Forced to Put Out, AlterNet, August 3, 2010, by Gareth Porter.

We invite you to participate in a discussion we began on the White House’s LinkedIn group. We wanted to open up this little discussed but critical area of looming difficulty in the world to public discussion. I don’t know if transparency will help in this grave difficulty, but it couldn’t hurt!

News on Iran and Israel from CLG News:

What Happens When Push Comes to Shove with Iran and Israel?

What should the White House’s and the President’s proper response be if Israel attacks Iran? Should the United States stay neutral, adopt a stance of moderate logistical support for Israel, or join Israel in attacking Iran? Recent news suggests a higher likelihood of Israel in fact choosing a response of making an attack, on Lebanon (Hezbollah) and very likely Iran.

These folowing news items support this assertion. The question is, if this happens, what should the White House response be? (~ Paul Evans)

House Republicans Give Green Light for Israeli Strike on Iran: Arutz Shiva – Israel National News.com: 28 Jul 2010 – Nearly one third of the Republican congressmen in the U.S. House of Representatives have introduced a resolution that would support Israel’s right to use “all means necessary to confront and eliminate nuclear threats posed by Iran”, including military force. The resolution was introduced by Rep. Louie Gohmert [R-Texas] and 46 co-sponsors. [See: House Resolution 1553.]

Israel says Iran sanctions not enough: Press TV (Iran national news organization): 30 Jul 2010:

Repeating its accusations against Tehran’s nuclear program, Israel says sanctions cannot stop a determined Iran from pursuing its nuclear goals.

"They’re determined to get nuclear military capability. We see it," Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program on Friday, AFP reported. "I don’t believe that sanctions will work," he told the US-based cable news channel.

Barak said Israel agreed in essence with the sanctions and that Tel Aviv still believed it was time for sanctions to see whether they worked, but said the measure was not enough. "We have to realize, we cannot wink in front of tough realities, however tough they might be."

The UN Security Council approved a fourth set of sanctions on Iran in June — a slap in the face of the Islamic republic’s confidence building efforts and a tripartite nuclear swap declaration it signed with Brazil and Turkey in May.

Watch Israeli Mossad Chief Secretly visits Saudi Arabia, PressTV (Iranian national news) YouTube video — 0:41.

Listen to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak discuss Iran’s nuclear program on Fox News. — 4:57.

I then left the following comment to open up the discussion on the White House Group’s LinkedIn page:

I realize the controversial nature of any claim that Israel plans to attack Iran. The fact is, Israel has “dry-runned” the flight path to Iran and back twice, going the entire distance necessary to attack Iran from the air, and Israel has the world’s fourth largest air force. The second dry run included fighters equipped with extra fuel allowing them to accompany the bombers. Israel also has now developed predator drones, giving it a possible capacity to “decapitate” the Iranian regime. In fact, news items from around the internet suggest that Saudi Arabia has given Israel permission to use Saudi air space in any attack. The recent visit, referenced above, of the Israeli Mossad chief secretly visiting Saudi Arabia underscores the reality of the developing situation.

It seems to me that America desperately needs a public discussion of just how far we, as a nation, are willing to go in supporting any future Israeli attack on Iran.

The fact is, Israel has a few to several hundred nuclear weapons in its possession. Should the possibility, or even the probability, of Iran developing a weapons capability, be sufficient cause to support Israel in an attack on Iran? This is one of the paramount questions of our time.

Of course, this is sensitive information, and any response, particularly a “positive” decision to support Israel in an attack, must be made in secret. Yet a national dialogue on the whole topic and danger seems to be lacking, and I am inviting the White House to allow this discussion and see what our American people’s will is in the matter.

See Israel’s Insane War on Iran Must Be Prevented, CASMII (Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran), July 30, 2010, by Muriel Mirak-Weissbach, excerpt quoted verbtim:

Israel’s attack on a humanitarian aid ship headed for Gaza may prove to be the greatest strategic error the government has ever made. Like the Soweto riots in South Africa in 1976, or Bloody Sunday – the American civil rights march on March 7, 1965, in Selma, Alabama, where police opened fire and killed civilians – the Mavi Marmora affair crossed a red line. It has triggered an international wave of condemnation, expressing a shift in attitude toward Israel. The hope is that this international outrage, flanked by growing anti-government dissent inside the country, will provoke an identity crisis among the elite and people of Israel, shake up the political kaleidoscope and allow for a viable pro-peace force to emerge. Unless this occurs, new Israeli aggression, including against Iran, will remain high on their immediate agenda.

See Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites, The Times Online, June 12, 2010, by Hugh Tomlinson.

See ‘U.S., Israel officials hold talks on Iran’, Tehran Times, July 31, 2010, by Press TV.

See US: Iran sanctions starting to bite, Jerusalem Post, July 30, 2010, by Hilary Leila Krieger, excerpt quoted verbatim:

WASHINGTON – New sanctions regimes against Iran are already bearing fruit, senior US officials said Thursday, though they acknowledged the need to press countries in the Middle East, Asia and South America more forcefully.

Accordingly, top US Treasury and State Department officials are scheduled to travel to those regions in the coming weeks to push for greater sanctions there – or at the very least that these countries refrain from taking advantage of the vacuum created in Iran’s energy sector as other international sanctions take effect. China and the United Arab Emirates were places of particular concern, according to the officials.

But Robert Einhorn, US State Department special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, and Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for terrorist financing, also testified before Congress Thursday that they were already seeing progress from new sanctions. The UN Security Council passed a resolution in June adding sanctions on Iran if it didn’t halt uranium enrichment, followed by a new US law signed at the beginning of July, EU and Canadian sanctions this past week and Australian sanctions on Thursday.

“Our efforts have yielded significant results,” said Einhorn, who pointed to $50 billion to $60b. in held up or canceled oil and gas development deals, the unwillingness of a growing list of major suppliers to provide Iran gasoline, and Iran’s trouble in accessing financial services because of the refusal of international banks to do business with it.

“I think we’re starting to see that it’s working,” Glaser agreed. He noted Iran’s difficulties in getting investments in its energy sector, with the targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps itself dropping out of deals, and said, “International corporations are increasingly unwilling to do business with Iran.”

See EU approves tougher sanctions against Iran, Xinhua News English, July 27, 2010.

Ex-CIA chief: Strike on Iran seems more likely now

Ex-CIA chief: Strike on Iran seems more likely now, AP hosted on Yahoo News, July 25, 2010, by The Associated Press, excerpt quoted verbatim:

WASHINGTON (AP) — A former CIA director says military action against Iran now seems more likely because no matter what the U.S. does diplomatically, Tehran keeps pushing ahead with its suspected nuclear program.

Michael Hayden, a CIA chief under President George W. Bush, says that during his tenure a strike was “way down the list” of options. But he tells CNN’s “State of the Union” that such action now “seems inexorable.”

He predicts Iran will build its program to the point where it’s just below having an actual weapon. Hayden says that would be as destabilizing to the region as the real thing.

U.S. officials have said military action remains an option if sanctions fail to deter Iran.

Maybe Sanctions Are Working: Iran Ready to Halt Nuclear Enrichment – Report

Official: Iran ready to halt enrichmen, Xinhua News, July 31, 2010, excerpt quoted verbatim:

BEIJING, July 31 (Xinhuanet) — The leader of Tehran’s Friday Prayers has repeated Iran’s expressed readiness to halt domestic uranium enrichment.

Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani, also member of the country’s Assembly of Experts, says his nation will do so if it is provided with the 3.5 percent enriched uranium it requires for a research reactor.

He also urges world powers to stop opposing Iran, and let the country continue its nuclear activities under international supervision.

Mohammad Emami Kashani, Iranian Assembly of Experts Member, said, “Come and supervise all of our nuclear activities. Iran has shown its good intentions before, and is still proving them. These lies and violations of rules will not take you anywhere, and will not bring you any results from now on, either.”

Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization also says the country would be ready to negotiate with world powers over a fuel swap in the next few days.

See Israel Gets Brutal With Media, InterPress Service, July 23, 2010, by Mel Frykberg.

All we can do is pray for peace. Chinese papers typically follow an Iranian line on these matters so that the aforementioned news item may well constitute propoganda. Yet is is still a hopeful sign in the ongoing saber rattling, is it not? All this rather sounds like “wars and rumors of wars”, right? ~ Paul Evans

See ‘US psywar plan includes 2 hot wars’, Press TV (Iranian national news), July 26, 2010.

See Israel Gets Brutal With Media, InterPress Service, July 23, 2010, by Mel Frykberg.

*****

Reports: IAF Landed at Saudi Base,
US Troops near Iran Border

Reports: IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border, Arutz Sheva (Israel National News.com, June 23, 2010, by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu, excerpt quoted verbatim:

The Israeli Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at a Saudi Arabia base, a semi-official Iranian news agency claimed Wednesday, while a large American force has massed in Azerbaijan, which is on the northwest border of Iran.

Both reports follow by less than a week the Pentagon’s confirmation that an unusually large American fleet sailed through the Suez Canal Saturday. Several reports stated that an Israeli ship joined the armada.

The Pentagon played down the news, saying the American maneuvers were routine. However, a report by Iran on Wednesday that it has enriched dozens of pounds of 17 per cent enriched uranium serves as a reminder that time is running out to stop Iran from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s Fars News Agency said the Israeli military aircraft landed 10 days ago at the Saudi base near the city of Tabuk, located in northwest Saudi Arabia, one of the closest areas in the oil kingdom to Iran.

Fars said that the Tabuk base will be the central station for an Israeli attack on Iran. It quoted an Islamic news site that a commercial airline passenger said the airport in Tabuk was closed to all other traffic during the alleged Israeli landings. The passenger said that “no reasonable explanation” was given for shutting down the airport and those passengers were compensated financially and booked in four-star hotels.

“The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have become the talk of the town,” the passenger added. The chief authority in Tabuk, Prince Fahd ben Sultan, was reported be coordinating the cooperation with Israel.

Azerbaijan
Iran’s government-funded Press TV reported that the Revolutionary Guards began closely patrolling the Islamic Republic’s northwestern border after noticing the American forces, which Iran claimed also included Israeli troops. Azerbaijan’s independent Trend news site also reported on Wednesday that American armed forces are in the country, which is in an armed conflict with rebels.

Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Mehdi Moini said Tuesday that his forces are mobilized “due to the presence of American and Israeli forces on the western border.” The Guards reportedly have called in tanks and anti-aircraft units to the area in what amounts to a war alert.

Read the full article, here.

Hundreds of powerful US “bunker-buster” bombs are being shipped from California to the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparation for a possible attack on Iran.

The Sunday Herald can reveal that the US government signed a contract in January to transport 10 ammunition containers to the island. According to a cargo manifest from the US navy, this included 387 “Blu” bombs used for blasting hardened or underground structures.

Experts say that they are being put in place for an assault on Iran’s controversial nuclear facilities. There has long been speculation that the US military is preparing for such an attack, should diplomacy fail to persuade Iran not to make nuclear weapons.

Although Diego Garcia is part of the British Indian Ocean Territory, it is used by the US as a military base under an agreement made in 1971. The agreement led to 2,000 native islanders being forcibly evicted to the Seychelles and Mauritius.

The Sunday Herald reported in 2007 that stealth bomber hangers on the island were being equipped to take bunker-buster bombs.

They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran
Dan Plesch, director, Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, University of London

Although the story was not confirmed at the time, the new evidence suggests that it was accurate.

Contract details for the shipment to Diego Garcia were posted on an international tenders’ website by the US navy.

A shipping company based in Florida, Superior Maritime Services, will be paid $699,500 to carry many thousands of military items from Concord, California, to Diego Garcia.

Crucially, the cargo includes 195 smart, guided, Blu-110 bombs and 192 massive 2000lb Blu-117 bombs.

“They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran,” said Dan Plesch, director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy at the University of London, co-author of a recent study on US preparations for an attack on Iran. “US bombers are ready today to destroy 10,000 targets in Iran in a few hours,” he added. ….

Read the full article, here.

Commentary by Evans Liberal Politics owner Paul Evans: Our Best U.S. intelligence estimate is that Iran will have a nuclear warhead capable of taking out Tel Aviv within about five months. With I’maNutJob and the Ayatollah in charge, there is little doubt they would do that. That, at least is the conventional “inside” information. Another theory is that Iran is simply trying to get the best “terms” possible. However, in what way are we dealing with a rational, intelligent head of government when the man denies the reality of the Holocaust. Thus, probably, it becomes necessary to take those two out, and take out Iran’s military capabilities unless by some miracle they start acting reasonably (little chance).

There are two ways to go about taking out Iran’s military capabilities: 1.) We could decapitate the regime, removing I’maNutJob and the Ayatollah with drones, which now both Israel and the U.S. have. 2.) We could bomb them into submission, thus the ordinance referred to in the above article. Now, Iran is not stupid and knows we’d like to do this, but in fact, we’d only do it to stop them from taking out Tel Aviv, not for nefarious (or New World Order) reasons, or we would have done it by now. But I sincerely doubt we’ll wait until the five months are up; neither Israel nor ourselves is going to wait till the last possible moment.

The main consideration is that Iran possesses about 1,700 intermediate range conventional warhead missiles, and Saudi Arabia has two, and exactly two, oil port terminuses for shipping out its oil. I’m sure that we have plenty of Patriot missile batteries in place, and will have more, but SOME of Iran’s missiles will hit there and for a while, I have read that oil will for a short term reach $18 a gallon before it goes down in price somewhat. Another major consideration is that, while Iran has these conventional missiles, some will undoubtedly have chemical/biological warheads. So it will take a while to get Saudi Arabia up and running again. Several months ago, Saudi Arabia cleared Israel to use Saudi air space, and the Israeli air force already simulated a run to the distance of Iran with fighters outfitted to go the whole distance and back.

Another consideration is Russia’s reaction to our “aggression”, since Iran is a strategic partner of Russia.

We know this, and, believe me, so does Iran. What we’re seeing here is a huge game of cat and mouse with rather high stakes.

Is all this inevitable??? That’s up to Iran, isn’t it…. sleep well….

I just wanted to point out that the letter of support written by assembly of experts in support of Khamenei’s sermon is only signed by the deputy leader of the assembly, who is a former head of the judiciary and a staunch supporter of ahmadinejad, as well as a rival of Rafsanjani for the assembly’s leadership election. He is the only one signing the letter and the government sponsored news media are reporting it as a letter from the full assembly.

Once again thanks for the great job in reporting the events. Just a comment about your 7:33pm item about the Assembly of Experts. The statement is not by the Assembly of Experts, but by Mohammad Yazdi, the head of the “Dabirkhane” of the Assembly of Experts. His statement doesn’t carry much weight and definitely not a blow to the freedom movement. After all, there are certainly many Khamene’i loyalists in the Assembly of Experts and such comments could be expected from these cowards.

“What’s going on in Iran, really?” Clinton asked. “They have some ethnic differences there and some religious differences, but basically, this is about a government trying to deny the modern world.

One of Iran’s most powerful men may be playing a key role behind closed doors in the country’s escalating postelection crisis.

According to the source that asked to remain anonymous, during this meeting they recounted memories of the days of the Revolution.