Analysis of Iran Conundrum
Lacks Insight from Our Intelligence
Prospects for Peace Seem Bleak
Evans Politics, October 1, 2009
Evans Politics, October 1, 2009, Compiled and with analysis by Paul Evans, sources given below:
In Iran Meets U.S. and Allies for Nuclear Talks in Geneva, The New York Times (October 1, 2009, by Steven Erlanger and Mark Landler) provides the latest on talks being held today which are perhaps the last best chance of preventing either much tougher sanctions and a still harsher climate between Washington and Tehran, or else, the probability of an Israeli attack on Iran, probably in a month or less, from what we’ve read.
GENEVA — Critical talks over Iran’s nuclear ambitions began Thursday morning in the Geneva countryside, with Washington and its allies hoping to draw Iran into a serious negotiation that will open up the country to serious nuclear inspections, suspend Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and reassure its neighbors that its intentions are peaceful.
Thursday’s meeting between Iran and the five members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union will mark the beginning of an “extraordinarily difficult process” and further meetings are likely, a senior American official said. Washington would still like to begin bilateral talks with Iran on a broader relationship, including trade and Tehran’s support for Palestinian, Lebanese and Iraqi insurgent and terrorist groups, from Hezbollah to Islamic Jihad.
UPDATE: Iran Agrees to More Nuclear Talks With U.S. and Allies, © The New York Times, October 1, 2009, by Steve Erlanger and Mark Landler, excerpt quoted verbatim:
BACK FROM THE BRINK? “GENEVA — Iran and the big powers opposed to its nuclear program appeared to make progress Thursday in talks that included the highest-level direct discussions with the United States in many years, with both sides agreeing to hold further negotiations and the Iranians pledging to allow foreign inspectors into a newly disclosed uranium enrichment factory.
“The talks, held in Geneva, defused some of the tensions that have escalated rapidly in recent weeks over Iran’s nuclear intentions and represented a victory of sorts for the Iranian government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose own egitimacy has not been universally recognized since his disputed re-election in June.
“President Obama on Thursday afternoon called the landmark talks a ‘constructive beginning,’ but warned Iran that he was prepared to move quickly to sanctions if negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions dragged on. Trying to strike a firm tone, Mr. Obama said that he also expected Iran to allow international weapons inspectors into its nuclear facility at Qom within two weeks.
“‘We’re not interested in talking for the sake of talking,’ Mr. Obama said in a remarks to reporters in the White House Diplomatic Reception Room. ‘If Iran does not take concrete steps, we are not prepared to talk indefinitely.’” ….
Read the full article, here.
UPDATE 2: Iran Agrees to Send Enriched Uranium to Russia, The New York Times, October 1, 2009, by Steven Erlanger and Mark Landler, excerpt quoted verbatim>
“GENEVA — Iran agreed on Thursday in talks with the United States and other major powers to open its newly revealed uranium enrichment plant near Qum to international inspection in the next two weeks and to send most of its openly declared enriched uranium to Russia to be turned into fuel for a small reactor that produces medical isotopes, senior American and other Western officials said.
“Iran’s agreement in principle to export most of its enriched uranium for processing — if it happens — would represent a major accomplishment for the West, reducing Iran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon quickly and buying more time for negotiations to bear fruit.” ….
Read the full article, here.
There are several good articles on the Iran mess at The Washington Post. In France Toughens Stance on Iran, WaPo, October 1, 2009, Eric Cody shows us the new, tough stance of France’s Sarkozy.
PARIS, Sept. 30 — Under President Nicolas Sarkozy, France has adopted an increasingly hard-edged approach to Iran, often out ahead of the Obama administration with uncompromising language criticizing Iranian leaders and warning that their nuclear program threatens world peace.
See also Iranian Opposition Warns Against Stricter Sanctions, The Washington Post, October 1, 2009, by Thomas Erdbrink.
See also U.S. Opens Door To Bilateral Talks With Iranians, The Washington Post, October 1, 2009, by Glenn Kessler.
|
|---|
Thanks to the Israeli lobby in the U.S., Israel now possesses the fourth largest air force in the world. Israel took out the nascent Iraqi nuclear facilities 30 years ago, and all this time later, there’s been no hint (Bush’s claims notwithstanding) of anything nuclear from Iraq. Evans Politics, after carefully studying the situation, can only conclude that it must be only Obama’s personal hand on the steering wheel – what leverage we do have with Israel – which is preventing the Israelis from having “gone into action” some time ago. Already, they have outfitted their bombers AND fighters with fuel tanks providing the necessary capability and also made a practice run, which went largely unreported by the press.
Saudi Arabia, which is also threatened by Iran, in part because the Saudi’s rulers are Sunni and it has a very disgruntled populace which is predominantly Shiite (as is Iran’s populace and government), very recently gave the OK for Israel to use Saudi airspace in any attack on Iran.
|
|---|
The New Republic, a publication which has been described as neocon centrist or beltway liberal, gave what to us sounds like Israel’s likely choice in a piece published September 27, 2009, Two Ways of Buying Time. One Way Works., by Marty Peretz, editor-in chief of the publication:
“…Gates also has taken on the task of pooh-poohing any military option (which, of course, he hasn’t taken off the table), blah, blah, blah. Here exactly is what he said: “There is no military option that does anything more than buy time.” So there!
This is likely to be the administration’s fail-safe excuse for not itself doing anything concrete against Tehran’s bombs and missiles. And it will use this rationale also to persuade Israel from defending itself.
But, if it comes to that, Israel is not likely to listen. It has had its own experience with how long the time you buy will last.
On June 7, 1981, several Israel air force F-16s, accompanied by F-15 interceptors, took out an Iraqi uranium-powered nuclear reactor outside of Baghdad. Twenty-two years later–and not for wont of trying–the Iraqis still did not have a nuclear facility, as poor George Bush can tell you.
Yes, Iranian nuclear facilities are more dispersed and more intricate. But Israeli military might (to say nothing of American military might) is also more sophisticated, more intrusive and more capacious than in 1981. I’d be happy with a 20 years delay in Iranian nuclear arms development, and even in a decade’s delay. With such a devastating defeat the regime would probably collapse. That’s when the diplomatic option might really work.
Another analysis we’ve read concluded that it would be unnecessary to try to destroy the “new” facilty near Qum (which we’ve apparently known about for years) … but that rather, all that would be necessary would be to seal off the entrance(s).
The regime in Israel, which can only be described as headed by a Prime Minister and cabinet who are essentially neocon in mentality, is utterly determined and totally unafraid of world opinion: think about the Palestinian massacre. On the Iranian side, look just how “reasonable” Iran has been about the recent election, how utterly uncowed it was by world opinion. Are Russia and China really going to go along with tough, effective sanctions against Tehran? It would be a first, wouldn’t it?
Not to be alarmist, or to be supportive of such “extreme” policy choices, but I think we should all start getting ready for some pretty hefty gas prices. On the other hand, this isn’t George Bush’s diplomacy, it’s Obama’s, and we can count on that being considerably more effective. But it’s only a matter of time, and not long at that, before Israel acts, unless it sees that the whole world steps up to the plate and forces Iranian compliance.
A critical question is, “what does the Obama administration know which isn’t public knowledge, that can we only speculate about, since we don’t have the knowledge of highly classified intelliigence?” Apparently we “sat on” the knowledge of the Qum facility for years.
However it makes sense that anything which ISN’T public knowledge, like the Qum facility, can only be bad news. Obama did meet with the Russian leader recently, and perhaps some kind of deal was struck to get their cooperation over sanctions. Overall, though, I’m not too hopeful. I don’t think Israel is going to wait very long.
At any rate, the peace of the whole region is very much at stake in the current talks with Iran. ~ Paul Evans
