Published in much fuller form at Daily Kos as Wake Up! Dems Going Down in 2010 Unless Obama Wakes Up, where it has received 209 comments.

A Research 2000/Daily Kos poll released on Friday gives the most direct evidence that Democrats face major trouble in the midterm elections because their base is completely unmotivated to vote.

Obama remains in positive territory at 53% approval in the poll, and both the Democratic Party and Democratic leaders outpoll their Republican counterparts. On the generic ballot test, Democrats still lead by 5 points, 37-32. However, the key statistic in the poll can be found here:

But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will “definitely not vote” in 2010 than are Republicans.

These numbers would probably be enough to destroy Democratic hopes in swing district and close Senate seats throughout the country. And the reasons are pretty clear; Democrats have simply not been given enough of a reason to come out and vote yet. The economy is still struggling, health care is moving at a glacial pace (and it’s one of the few major issues moving), the Obama Administration has alienated liberals on various key parts of the agenda, and there’s a persistent feeling that Wall Street has been bailed out at the expense of ordinary Americans.

Read the full article, here.

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COMMENT by Paul Evans: As per the article, unless the Democratic Congress and the Obama Administration enact real healthcare reform, a good jobs bill, truly reform Wall Street and get going on the climate bill, the people will no longer believe in the “change we can believe in,” will no longer have hope, and 2010 will go down as an historic Democratic defeat.

In this regard it is interesting to note an eerie parallel from Is Obama Following in the Footsteps of Bill Clinton?, AlterNet, November 26, 2009, by Jeff Cohen:

NAFTA was quickly followed by the debacle of Clinton healthcare “reform” largely drafted by giant insurance companies, which was followed by a stunning election defeat for Congressional Democrats in November 1994, as progressive and labor activists were lethargic while rightwing activists in overdrive put Gingrich into the Speaker’s chair.

That article is particularly critical of Obama’s “Clinton-like willingness to roll over progressives to enact corrupt legislation and compromise for the votes of Republicans.” It seem obvious, then, that the base is alienated and bored by what Obama is doing. Maybe Obama and Rahm Emanuel need to wake up. Maybe all of us liberals need to wake up. If two fifths of Democrats eschew the 2010 elections, we are going to go down.